Enhancing Resilience Of Urban Ecosystems through Green Infrastructure (EnRoute): Progress report

EnRoute stands for Enhancing Resilience of urban ecosystems through green infrastructure. EnRoute is a project of the European Commission in the framework of the EU Biodiversity Strategy and the Green Infrastructure Strategy. EnRoute provides scientific knowledge of how urban ecosystems can support urban planning at different stages of policy and for various spatial scales and how to help policy-making for sustainable cities. It aims to promote the application of urban green infrastructure at local level and delivers guidance on the creation, management and governance of urban green infrastructure. Importantly, it illustrates how collaboration between and across different policy levels can lead to concrete green infrastructure policy setting. This report describes the progress made by EnRoute since the start of the project (01/12/2016). EnRoute is testing the MAES indicator framework on mapping and assessment of urban ecosystems in 20 cities across Europe. The report collects the relevant policy questions for these cities with respect to urban green infrastructure and identifies which indicators of the MAES analytical framework can be used to support local policy. The report includes the datasets and models that will be used for an EU wide assessment of urban ecosystems and their services. The report contains a first proposal for an online survey on the functionality of a science policy interface on urban green infrastructure at different governance levels. The report describes the contributions of EnRoute to other initiatives: update of the MAES indicator framework for ecosystem condition, the task force on an impact evaluation framework for nature based solutions under Horizon 2020, and the EU urban agenda.JRC.D.3-Land Resource

Climate change and Europe’s water resources

In addition to the already existing pressure on our freshwater resources, climate change may further decrease water availability. In this study, projections of future water resources, due to climate change, land use change and changes in water consumption have been assessed using JRC’s LISFLOOD water resources model. The results presented are based on 11 climate models which project current and future climate under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenario. RCP4.5 may be viewed as a moderate-emissions-mitigation-policy scenario and RCP8.5 as a high-end emissions scenario. A 30-year window around the year that global warming reaches 1.5oC, 2oC and 3oC above preindustrial temperature has been analysed and compared to the 1981-2010 control climate window (baseline). The 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios are explicitly considered in the Paris Agreement, while a 3°C global warming is a scenario that could be expected by the end of the 21st century if adequate mitigation strategies are not taken. First, we performed future projections without socio-economic developments to show the effect of climate change only. Next, an integrated assessment is performed including future changes in land use, water demand and population. This allows us to disentangle the effects of climate and socio-economic changes. In general, the climate projections reveal a typically North-South pattern across Europe for water availability. Overall, Southern European countries are projected to face decreasing water availability, particularly Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Italy and Turkey. Central and Northern European countries show an increasing annual water availability.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

Assessing the effects of water saving measures on Europe's water resources: BLUE2 project - Freshwater quantity

Using JRC's LISFLOOD water resources model, the effect of four policy measures on Europe's water resources were investigated under current and future climate. The measures evaluated were increasing irrigation efficiency, urban water use efficiency, cooling water usage for energy production, and urban waste-water re-use for irrigation. The measures were evaluated following their current planned implementation (BAU) under the Water Framework Directive. Furthermore, an Maximum Feasible Technology scenario was investigated for all 4 measures. Increasing irrigation efficiency shows to have the largest effect on improving water resources, under current climate. Under future climate change however, the projected decreases in water availability in especially the Mediterranean are larger than the increases obtained with improving irrigation efficiency. This may indicate that an increased level of ambition in water efficiency measures is required to reduce the impact of climate change on water resources.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

Impact of a changing climate, land use, and water usage on Europe’s water resources: A model simulation study

In this work, an assessment of the impacts of climate change on Europe’s water resources has been performed, focusing on the effects of 2°C warming. Climate projections from 1981-2100 were run through a distributed hydrological model assuming constant land use and water demand (year 2006). In this study, the 2°C warming period of five climate change projections was analysed. As a consequence of a 2 degree climate change, it is expected that - except for the Mediterranean region - precipitation will increase in most parts of Europe with the highest values over the Alps and Eastern Europe. These increases in precipitation are most likely linked to the increase in temperature which triggers more convective storms in the summer months. The observed consequences of a 2 degree climate change for the river flow and extreme events – floods and droughts - are: • The annual median river discharge shows an increase in most parts of Europe, except for the Mediterranean area where a decrease in flow is projected in all four seasons. • As a consequence of climate change, extreme peak discharges are projected to increase in almost every part of Europe, even the Mediterranean. The highest increases in flood hazards are found in the summer months for the inland countries whereas coastal zones and parts of Scandinavia show a decrease in floods. These increases are probably linked again to the increase in temperature which triggers more convective storms with a higher probability of floods. Especially urban areas near larger rivers might need more attention to flood risk management and planning, due to projections of growth of urban areas and increased flood hazard. • Streamflow droughts will become more severe in the summer season mainly for the Mediterranean region (Spain, Portugal, Greece). This might have an impact for cooling water intake for industrial and energy production activities, irrigation water availability, critical environmental flow conditions, as well as hydropower potential. • According the climate change projections the most extreme events are projected to occur in summer with an increase in flood risk in the eastern part of Europe (e.g. Poland) and the Baltic countries and extreme droughts in the Mediterranean region. These projected future changes in the hydrological cycle are directly reflected in the water resources indicators. Especially the southern European countries are projected to face increased water shortages: • Climate change projections lead to an increase in the number of days per year that river flows are lower than a critical minimum in the Mediterranean regions and a decrease in the northern latitudes. Especially Spain and Portugal face increased low flow conditions. • The climate change projections lead to a decrease of groundwater resources in the southern European countries and an increase for the northern countries. Further over-abstraction of groundwater in southern European countries – beyond renewable capacity – might lead to critical deep groundwater levels and increased pumping costs to extract the water for use at the surface. • Soil moisture stress conditions - which could reduce agricultural crop yields, are especially increasing under the 2oC warming scenario in the already stressed areas in the Mediterranean. Specific crop yield effects are described in the report on agriculture. - • The southern European regions with already a high current water consumption relative to water availability are projected to be most affected by a 2-degree warming due to a decrease in freshwater resources, and at the same time an increased need for irrigation water due to higher evaporative demands. • In the Mediterranean countries and especially in Spain the water resources situation will become more unsustainable. Inflowing upstream freshwater is also not sufficient to meet local water needs under a 2 degree warming. • For eastern Europe, the projections indicate that some regions will rely to a reduced extent on upstream inflow to meet their local water demands. Policy implications: • Especially in the Mediterranean part of Europe, water savings will be essential to adapt to the decreasing overall water availability; savings could take place to increasing irrigation efficiency, sub-optimal or deficit irrigation strategies, efficiency increases in cooling processes in industry and energy production, public water savings, a better intra-annual management of water resources in a basin (e.g. storing winter water in hydropower reservoirs for irrigation water use in summer. Increased synergies between the water and agricultural policies are needed. • To raise awareness for the importance of water, setting a reasonable price on water will be an essential incentive for users for water savings. As long as water is either free of charge or to cheap, users will likely not be urged for savings. • A better control on and prevention of illegal abstractions is needed to prevent over-abstraction of groundwater in a number of European regions. A better reporting of water abstractions does help the monitoring of water resources as well. • Given the expected increase in flood hazard, especially in the urbanised areas – which in many cases are expected for further grow until 2050 according to JRC’s LUISA projections – flood risk management, prevention and adaptation to floods will become an even bigger issue.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Europe

The JRC PESETA IV study shows that ecosystems, people and economies in the EU will face major impacts from climate change if we do not urgently mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to climate change. The burden of climate change shows a clear north-south divide, with southern regions in Europe much more impacted, through the effects of extreme heat, water scarcity, drought, forest fires and agriculture losses. Limiting global warming to well below 2°C would considerably reduce climate change impacts in Europe. Adaptation to climate change would further minimize unavoidable impacts in a cost-effective manner, with considerable co-benefits from nature-based solutions.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

ARTEFACTS: How do we want to deal with the future of our one and only planet?

The European Commission’s Science and Knowledge Service, the Joint Research Centre (JRC), decided to try working hand-in-hand with leading European science centres and museums. Behind this decision was the idea that the JRC could better support EU Institutions in engaging with the European public. The fact that European Union policies are firmly based on scientific evidence is a strong message which the JRC is uniquely able to illustrate. Such a collaboration would not only provide a platform to explain the benefits of EU policies to our daily lives but also provide an opportunity for European citizens to engage by taking a more active part in the EU policy making process for the future. A PILOT PROGRAMME To test the idea, the JRC launched an experimental programme to work with science museums: a perfect partner for three compelling reasons. Firstly, they attract a large and growing number of visitors. Leading science museums in Europe have typically 500 000 visitors per year. Furthermore, they are based in large European cities and attract local visitors as well as tourists from across Europe and beyond. The second reason for working with museums is that they have mastered the art of how to communicate key elements of sophisticated arguments across to the public and making complex topics of public interest readily accessible. That is a high-value added skill and a crucial part of the valorisation of public-funded research, never to be underestimated. Finally museums are, at present, undergoing something of a renaissance. Museums today are vibrant environments offering new techniques and technologies to both inform and entertain, and attract visitors of all demographics.JRC.H.2-Knowledge Management Methodologies, Communities and Disseminatio

DNVF Memorandum Health Services Research in Oncology

Health services research in oncology deals with all situations which cancer patients face. It looks at the different phases of care, i. e. prevention / early detection, prehabilitation, diagnostics, therapy, rehabilitation and palliative care as well as the various actors, including those affected, the carers and self-help. It deals with healthy people (e. g. in the context of prevention / early detection), patients and cancer survivors. Due to the nature of cancer and the existing care structures, there are a number of specific contents for health services research in oncology compared to general health services research while the methods remain essentially identical. This memorandum describes the subject, illustrates the care structures and identifies areas of health services research in oncology. This memorandum has been prepared by the Oncology Section of the German Network for Health Services Research and is the result of intensive discussions